」他的老板,如果是老鸟,应该知道肯定不会是什么好消息,保险世界的意外,对于盈余的影响通常不会非常一致。
Because of this one-sided experience, it is folly to suggest, as some are doing, that all property/casualty insurance reserves be discounted, an approach reflecting the fact that they will be paid in the future and that therefore their present value is less than the stated liability for them. Discounting might be acceptable if reserves could be precisely established. They can"t, however, because a myriad of forces - judicial broadening of policy language and medical inflation, to name just two chronic problems - are constantly working to make reserves inadequate. Discounting would exacerbate this already-serious situation and, additionally, would provide a new tool for the companies that are inclined to fudge.
也由于存在着这种偏差的经验,所以当有人盲目地认为产物意外险的损失准备由于反应的是未来必须支付的款项,所以在经过现值折算后,应该会小于实际上的负债,我个人认为这种想法有点可笑,当然损失准备若系经过准确估算,按现值加以折现或许可以接受,但由于几项不可抗力的因素-举两个存在已久的问题,保单条款的任意延伸以及医疗通膨,使得损失准备长期以来处于提列不当的景况,折现只会让原来存在的问题变得更加严重,并且让某些不肖公司平添回旋的空间。
I"d say that the effects from telling a profit-challenged insurance CEO to lower reserves through discounting would be comparable to those that would ensue if a father told his 16-year-old son to have a normal sex life. Neither party needs that kind of push.
我必须说,告诉一家在获利边缘挣扎的保险公司总经理可以透过折现将损失准备降低,其结果就好象是一位父亲告诉自己16岁的儿子可以自由地享受正常的性生活一般,我想两者都不需要这种揠苗式的助长。
Sources of Reported Earnings帐列盈余的来源
The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire"s reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments (primarily relating to "goodwill") are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. In recent years, our "expense" for goodwill amortization has been large. Going forward, generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") will no longer require amortization of goodwill. This change will increase our reported earnings (though not our true economic earnings) and simplify this section of the report.
下表显示Berkshire帐列盈余的主要来源,在这张表中商誉的摊销数与购买法会计调整数会从个别被投资公司分离出来,单独加总列示,之所以这样做是为了让旗下各事业的盈余状况,不因我们的投资而有所影响,近年来我们在商誉摊销的金额相当庞大,从今以后,一般公认会计原则将不再要求商誉必须摊销,此举将提高我们的帐面盈余(虽然实质的经济盈余一点变动都没有),并大幅简化这部份的报告。(in millions)
Pre-Tax Earnings Berkshire"s Shareof Net Earnings (after taxes andminority interests)
Operating Earnings: Insurance Group 2001 2000 2001 2000
Underwriting - Reinsurance $(4,318) $(1,416) $(2,824) $(911)
Underwriting - GEICO 221 22 (224) 144 14 (146)
Underwriting - Other Primary 30 3 25 2 18 1 16 1
Net Investment Income 2,824 2,82 2,773 2,77 1,968 1,96 1,946 1,94
Building Products(1) 461 46 34 3 287 28 21 2
Finance and Financial Products Business 519 51 530 53 336 33 343 34
Flight Services 186 18 213 21 105 10 126 12
MidAmerican Energy (76% owned) 600 60 197 19 230 23 109 10
Retail Operations 175 17 175 17 101 10 104 10
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation) 129 12 122 12 83 8 80 8
Shaw Industries(2) 292 29 -- - 156 15 -- -
Other Businesses 179 17 221 22 103 10 133 13
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments (726) (881) (699) (843)
Corporate Interest Expense (92) (92) (60) (61)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions (17) (17) (11) (11)
Other 25 39 16 30
Operating Earnings 488 48 1,699 1,69 (47) 936 93
Capital Gains from Investments 1,320 3,955 842 2,392
Total Earnings - All Entities $1,808 $1,80 $5,654 $5,65 $ 795 $ 79 $3,328 $3,32
(1) Includes Acme Brick from August 1, 2000; Benjamin Moore from December 18, 2000; Johns Manville from February 27, 2001; and MiTek from July 31, 2001.
(2) From date of acquisition, January 8, 2001.
Here are some highlights (and lowlights) from 2001 relating to our non-insurance activities:
以下是2001年我们非保险事业相关的重点摘要:
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